US military carries out strikes on Iran as both sides threaten civilian infrastructure

IN · 2026-07-23

1. Step 1 · The triggerUS strikes on Iran threaten Strait of Hormuz passage, raising the risk premium on crude oil
2. Step 2 · Knock-onglobal crude oil prices spike as traders price in potential supply disruption
3. Step 3 · Knock-onIndian crude import costs rise, widening the trade deficit and pressuring the rupee
4. Step 4 · Reaches youIndian SMEs face higher input costs (fuel, plastics, chemicals) and freight delays, squeezing margins

The trigger is reported by the source below. The steps that follow are Branch²’s traced reasoning — how the shock could reach a business like yours, not a prediction.

Source: The Hindu BusinessLine

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