El Nino may turn 'very strong' by late 2026: IRI; experts see elevated risk for India
India — direction and magnitude withheld
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Key takeaway
El Nino is projected to strengthen sharply by late 2026, raising risk of a weak Indian monsoon.
- Step 1 · The triggerEl Nino strengthens, raising the risk of a weak Indian monsoon and erratic rainfall
- Step 2 · Knock-onWeaker monsoon rainfall reduces water availability and crop yields, causing a negative supply shock to Indian agriculture
- Step 3 · Reaches youLower agricultural output drives up food, dairy, and grain input costs for Indian SMEs, squeezing margins and raising supply volatility
The trigger is reported by the source below. The steps that follow are Branch²’s traced reasoning — how the shock could reach a business like yours, not a prediction.
Source: The Hindu BusinessLine
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