Oil hits $100 a barrel as Middle East conflict raises global inflation risk

Oil prices have surged to $100 per barrel due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, raising concerns about global oil supplies and potential inflationary pressures.

UK · 2026-09-09

Oil hits $100/bbl on Middle East conflict, raising global inflation risk. Cost headwind for UK SMEs: both higher input costs and tighter financing, squeezing margins and cash flow. Named: companies BP plc, Shell plc, International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A.; sectors transport and logistics, oil and gas.

1. Step 1 · The triggerMiddle East conflict drives oil to $100, tightening global supply and raising input costs.
2. Step 2 · Knock-onUK fuel, freight, and energy prices rise as higher oil passes through supply chains.
3. Step 3 · Knock-onUK inflation expectations rise, prompting the Bank of England to keep rates higher for longer.
4. Step 4 · Reaches youUK SMEs face both higher input costs and tighter financing, squeezing margins and cash flow.

The trigger is reported by the source below. The steps that follow are Branch²’s traced reasoning — how the shock could reach a business like yours, not a prediction.

Source: City A.M.

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