Goldman Sachs expects another 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in October, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive monetary policy.

US · 2026-09-17

Goldman Sachs now expects the US Federal Reserve to raise rates again in October, signaling a more hawkish stance. Who it reaches: US SME owners' cost of capital rises, squeezing margins and discouraging new borrowing or investment. Named: companies Bank of America (BofA), Goldman Sachs Group Inc.; sectors US regional banks.

1. Step 1 · The triggerGoldman Sachs signals a more hawkish Fed path, expecting a rate hike in October
2. Step 2 · Knock-onfront-end US Treasury yields and short-term funding costs rise as markets reprice the Fed outlook
3. Step 3 · Knock-ondeposit-funded banks like Bank of America see wider net interest margins, while SMEs with floating-rate debt face higher interest expense
4. Step 4 · Reaches youUS SME owners' cost of capital rises, squeezing margins and discouraging new borrowing or investment

The trigger is reported by the source below. The steps that follow are Branch²’s traced reasoning — how the shock could reach a business like yours, not a prediction.

Source: IN:Economic Times

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