JP Morgan has expressed difficulty in forecasting oil prices due to the ongoing US-Iran war, indicating that many economic indicators have been crossed without a clear exit strategy.

UK · 2026-09-18

1. Step 1 · The triggerthe US-Iran war creates extreme uncertainty in global oil supply and demand, making price forecasting unreliable
2. Step 2 · Knock-onmajor banks like JP Morgan reduce commodity research guidance and clients hesitate to take positions, amplifying market volatility
3. Step 3 · Reaches youUK SMEs exposed to oil-linked costs face unpredictable input prices, making it riskier to fix long-term supply contracts

The trigger is reported by the source below. The steps that follow are Branch²’s traced reasoning — how the shock could reach a business like yours, not a prediction.

Source: BBC News — Business

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