Branch2 Intelligence
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, June 16-17, 2026
Key takeaway
Fed minutes signal higher-for-longer rates as core inflation remains sticky above 3%.
- Step 1Fed signals higher-for-longer rates; US term premium widens as inflation stays sticky.
- Step 2Cointegrated bond markets transmit the US term premium to UK gilt yields, raising SME floating-rate borrowing costs.
- Step 3Higher mortgage and financing costs suppress UK household discretionary spending, reducing demand for SME goods and services.
Source: Federal Reserve Press
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