Branch² Intelligence
Mortgage rates jump as tensions with Iran spook bond investors
Key takeaway
U.S.-Iran tensions spike bond yields, pushing mortgage rates higher.
- Step 1U.S.-Iran tensions trigger safe-haven bid, pushing 10Y UST yield up 10-15bp.
- Step 2Higher UST yield passes through to UK gilt yields via rate cointegration, raising UK mortgage and SME loan costs.
- Step 3UK homebuilders and construction SMEs face reduced demand as households defer purchases under higher financing costs.
Source: MarketWatch
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