How the analysis is made

Sources, evidence, scoring, how we check ourselves, and what the engine cannot do.

Atri is early warning for the costs, suppliers and customers your business depends on. Tell it what you buy and who you buy it from; it watches news, regulators and price benchmarks across the UK, US and India, traces each effect inward to your costs, and warns you early when one of your costs is about to move.

How a story is made

1. Ingest. The engine reads news feeds and official sources for the UK, US and India on a schedule, de-duplicates them by headline, and keeps the source link for every item.
2. Classify. Each article is classified once: event type, severity (1–10), direction and a confidence score.
3. Resolve entities. Companies and organisations named in the article are matched to a registry using identifiers first (company number, ticker, LEI), then name matching. Uncertain matches are queued for review rather than linked.
4. Trace the chain. The engine writes a causal chain from the reported trigger to the step that reaches a small business — for example a crude-oil move, then pump and utility prices, then the operating margins of fuel-heavy firms.
5. Score and publish. The story gets a 0–100 score and, where the evidence supports one, a cost direction for the businesses it reaches.

The evidence ladder

Every claim carries the strongest kind of source that actually backs it, and the page never shows a claim as more certain than that source. From strongest to weakest:

1. Filing — a regulatory or company filing.
2. Market data — a published price or official statistic.
3. Historical analogue — a pattern seen in comparable past events.
4. Inferred — reasoning by the model, with no stronger source behind it.

In a published chain, the first step is what the source reported. The steps after it are our traced reasoning: how the event could reach a business, not a forecast that it will.

Scoring

The impact score blends three signals with fixed weights: company financial health and leverage (50%), macro conditions (30%) and structural factors (20%), normalised to 0–100. Confidence combines the model's own sub-scores with the reliability of the source and a small bonus when independent sources corroborate the story. Analytical frameworks (for example discounted cash flow or Porter's Five Forces) are shown as explanations of a step; they are not inputs to the score.

How outcomes are measured

When a story makes a directional cost call, the call is stamped with its date at publication. After its horizon, it is checked against a published benchmark series for that region and input. Every result is published on the track record — hits, misses and calls still pending — and calls the benchmark could not check are counted, not hidden. The track record is measurement only: it never feeds back into how stories are scored.

Which pages search engines index

Only a small set of stories are offered to search engines: UK or US stories in English with a cost direction, a chain of at least three steps, at least one named organisation, a link to a small-business input cost, and either a high score or a checked outcome. Exchange notices, daily market wraps, duplicates of the same event and anything with investment-recommendation wording are left out. Everything else stays readable, but is marked not to be indexed.

Known limits

• The analysis is written by AI models and can be wrong. Every story links its source so you can check the trigger yourself.
• Coverage depends on what our sources publish and when; some sectors and regions are thinner than others.
• A chain describes one plausible route from an event to a business. Your own exposure depends on your contracts, suppliers and hedges.
• For India, direction and magnitude are withheld and pages are informational only, in line with SEBI rules.
• Nothing here is investment advice.

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