Track record
Every dated input-cost call Atri has flagged — hits, misses and pending, verified against public benchmark series. Nothing is removed.
Corrected on : the record now grades only explicit small-business cost calls. What changed
Download every call as a dataset (CSV)
Fuel & diesel
108 hits · 58 misses (65.1% of 166 graded) · 112 pending · median lead 4.4 days
Fuel costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
456 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
2338 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Brent up 2.41% to $104.72, WTI up 1% to $91.85 on US-Iran negotiation uncertainty and West Asian tensions. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-11 | Russia partially lifts its diesel export ban after a Putin-Trump agreement and US sanctions relief, allowing certain Russian diesel sales to resume. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-11 | UK diesel crosses £2/litre for the first time, driven by Iran-war disruption to global oil production and refining. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-11 | US sanctions easing allows Russian diesel back into global markets, pressuring refined-fuel prices. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | Trump publicly calls for Zelenskyy's replacement, blaming him for the war and high U.S. diesel prices. | costs easing | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Trump-Putin diesel deal authorises Russian diesel imports to the US until April 2027, but analysts doubt volumes will move the needle. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | Brent crude rallied 2.4% to $104.70/barrel, rebounding from trendline support | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | Trump-Putin call agrees Russia will supply diesel to US and global markets, easing US sanctions on Russian fuel. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | US temporarily allows Russian diesel exports via OFAC licence until 7 April, three weeks after signing the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | US Treasury waives sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027, allowing over 4 million tons of additional supply to reach global markets. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | Rupee snaps a three-session losing streak, closing 5 paise stronger at ₹96.73/USD on softer crude and a weaker dollar. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | US-Russia diesel trade provides Russia with additional war funding. | costs rising | PENDING |
Borrowing costs
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 187 pending.
Interest rates and borrowing costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
292 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
1296 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Amitabh Kant proposes cutting India's statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to lower credit costs and boost job-intensive manufacturing. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-11 | Chancellor John Healey heads to the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok amid a Bank of England warning that failure to balance the UK's books risks bond market turmoil. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-11 | RBI tightens liquidity: daily CRR maintenance raised to 99% from 90% effective Oct 16 fortnight. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-11 | NS&I lifts British savings bond rates to 4.99%–5.17%, the highest in nearly three years, as UK savings competition intensifies. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | RBI hikes repo rate 25 bps to 5.50% — first hike since Feb 2023 — and shifts stance to 'calibrated tightening' on accelerating inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | RBI raises minimum daily CRR maintenance from 90% to 99% effective October 16, 2026, to curb operational flexibility amid persistent liquidity surplus. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | SBI Capital Markets forecasts the RBI could raise the repo rate by 75-100 bps in the current tightening cycle. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | SBI Capital Markets projects the RBI will raise the repo rate by 75-100 bps in the current tightening cycle, with a possible larger hike in December 2026 depending on inflation data. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | RBI raises minimum daily CRR maintenance from 90% to 99% effective Oct 16, 2026, draining surplus liquidity. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | RBI to sell ₹25,000 crore of government bonds via OMO and tightens daily CRR maintenance to 99% from 90% effective October 16 — a liquidity drain after its first rate hike in nearly four years. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | RBI's 25 bps repo hike (to 5.50%) has pushed NBFCs to raise FD rates — Shriram Finance up to 40 bps, Bajaj Finance 15-40 bps. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | RBI repo rate hike from 5.25% to 5.50% signals tighter monetary policy, pushing bank FD rates up | costs rising | PENDING |
Energy
35 hits · 30 misses (53.8% of 65 graded) · 94 pending · median lead 1 day
Energy costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
39 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
1071 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
1 flag is still being re-read under the corrected method.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Trump claims an immediate Russia-Ukraine 'energy ceasefire', but Ukraine's support is conditional and Russia is silent. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-11 | Trump claims an immediate Russia-Ukraine 'energy ceasefire' on Truth Social, but neither side has confirmed it. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-11 | Russia struck a Kyiv power plant and Kharkiv energy facilities right after the US announced an 'energy ceasefire', undermining the truce. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | Petra Power, a 2017-founded startup, is developing solid oxide fuel cells for data centers and defense vehicles. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-08 | CMA clears E.ON Next's acquisition of Ovo Energy, shrinking Great Britain's household energy market to three dominant suppliers | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | IMF warns of a triple macro threat: AI boom, high energy prices from Middle East conflict, and global public debt over 100% of GDP. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-07 | UK retailers face £440m electricity cost rise this year as policy levies swell to two-thirds of bills | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-07 | Northern Ireland Education Authority projects £8m energy-bill rise by March 2027, driven by geopolitical energy-price pressure | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-06 | $150m DPA grant to Alaska Energy Authority for Beluga-Healy transmission line — second HV link between Southcentral and Interior Alaska | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-06 | Scotland faces a surge of at least 23 proposed hyperscale AI data centres, drawing controversy over energy use and environmental impact. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | Façade specification is becoming a valuation factor for commercial property, with prime energy-efficient buildings holding value while older stock faces rising vacancy and discounts. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | Ofgem appoints Tim Jarvis as permanent CEO, ending interim leadership since March. | costs rising | PENDING |
Freight & shipping
21 hits · 10 misses (67.7% of 31 graded) · 12 pending · median lead 3.7 days
Freight and shipping costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
94 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Houthi missile strike on Riyadh airport + Bab al-Mandab clashes push Red Sea war-risk premiums up — the Suez/Asia-Europe lane is the transmission channel into UK input costs. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | C.H. Robinson (CHRW) is buying RXO for ~$5.8bn, folding a top-tier truckload brokerage into the largest US 3PL and pausing buybacks to pay down deal leverage. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-10 | C.H. Robinson's $5.8bn acquisition of RXO consolidates two major US freight brokerages, creating a top-three 3PL. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-06 | C.H. Robinson (CHRW) to acquire RXO in strategic freight brokerage consolidation, creating largest North American 3PL by truckload volume | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | Saudi-led coalition launches Operation Dawn of Yemen with 100 fighter jets against Houthi targets along the Red Sea coast and Sana'a. | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Seven strikes since Sept. 28 and an IRGC warning raise security risk for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | Yemen's government launches offensive to retake Red Sea coast from Houthis after Bab el-Mandeb seizure | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-30 | Cargo theft ring exploited legitimate trucking identities to steal freight from Southern California warehouses. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-27 | Fighting near Yemen's Red Sea port of Mokha raises oil supply disruption fears. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-27 | US rejection of Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal keeps Gulf shipping risk elevated. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-24 | Iran signals openness to diplomacy at the UN but demands US sanctions on ports and shipping be lifted. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-23 | Houthi forces' territorial gains in Yemen threaten Saudi oil shipping routes via the Bab el-Mandeb strait. | costs rising | PENDING |
Imports & FX
7 hits · 27 misses (20.6% of 34 graded) · 9 pending · median lead 6.7 days
Tariffs and import costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
376 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Rupee falls 5 paise to 96.30/USD on oil and FII outflows | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | Rupee pinned near 96/USD as crude above $100 and foreign outflows pressure the currency. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-02 | US 10-year Treasury yields hit a 24-year high, triggering a global bond sell-off. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-02 | US 10-year Treasury yield hits a 24-year high, triggering global capital flows. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-02 | FCNR deposit inflows have temporarily supported the Indian rupee and balance of payments. | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Rupee weakens to 95.95 against USD as higher crude prices and US yields drive dollar demand. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-30 | Rupee weakens 1.2% last quarter as high crude prices and global bond yields pressure FX. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-30 | Rupee slips 3 paise to 95.97/$ as persistent dollar demand and foreign portfolio outflows weigh. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-29 | Rupee weakens past ₹96/$ on rising crude and portfolio outflow fears. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-28 | Rupee weakens toward 96/USD as crude prices and US yields rise. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-28 | The Indian rupee weakened by 28 paise to close at 96.03 per US dollar after the US rejected Iran's deal proposal, triggering global risk-off sentiment. | costs rising | MISS |
| 2026-09-27 | Potential US Fed rate hikes threaten capital outflows from India, pressuring the rupee. | costs rising | MISS |
Semiconductors
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 30 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
20 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
345 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | TSMC in early-stage talks with Elon Musk over a potential role in his planned Terafab foundry in Texas. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-02 | Taiwan's TAIEX index hit a record high, up 65% YTD, driven by AI and semiconductor demand. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-02 | Huawei launches Mate 90 smartphones using its own chip design to bypass US semiconductor restrictions. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-30 | Japan's Nikkei rose 1.3% as AI and semiconductor stocks rallied, tracking gains in US chip shares. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-29 | Nippon Express partners with India's Semiconductor Mission to enhance logistics infrastructure. | costs easing | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Specialty gases demand in India is set to rise sharply as semiconductor and solar cell manufacturing scales up. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-24 | Meta's new handheld device launch triggers a surge in demand expectations for CPU and semiconductor components. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-22 | Nexstrom raises $12m to develop scalable 2D semiconductor manufacturing technology. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-22 | Taiwan's Taiex index hit a record high, led by TSMC, MediaTek, and Delta Electronics. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-21 | ASML begins operations in India, hiring local engineers to support Tata Electronics' semiconductor fab in Dholera. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-20 | MeitY is working with the Finance Ministry to resolve customs and regulatory hurdles for India's semiconductor sector. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-20 | Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw warns India's semiconductor industry of potential cyberattacks. | costs rising | PENDING |
Sugar
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 27 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
125 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | India cuts sugar dealer stock holding period to 15 days and caps holdings at 1,000 quintals. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-01 | Government cuts sugar dealers' stock limit to 1,000 quintals from October 15 to November 30. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-29 | India rejects Australia's WTO claims on sugar subsidies, maintaining current support regime. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-24 | India faces a second year of sugar imports as domestic output drops due to water shortages. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-24 | India's transport minister signals a bleak future for plain sugar, urging sugar mills to shift toward compressed bio-gas (CBG) and value-added fuels. | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Indian sugar industry bodies reject profiteering allegations, citing minimal sales at peak August prices. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-22 | Sugar prices in India are rising, with the government stating it will not intervene. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-15 | India allocates a record 13.5 lakh tonne sugar sales quota for late September to curb festival-season price spikes. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-15 | ₹750 crore in soft loans approved for Maharashtra cooperative sugar mills. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-15 | El Niño reduces Indian sugar output, driving up sugar prices. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-12 | El Nino threatens India's 2026-27 sugarcane yields, tightening supply. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-10 | India will require monthly sugar production reporting from October to improve supply monitoring. | costs easing | PENDING |
Copper & wiring
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 18 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
3 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
97 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Codelco faces new allegations of double-counting copper production at Ministro Hales and Salvador mines, potentially inflating 2024-2025 output figures | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-24 | Record copper prices and an 18% GST are tying up working capital for Indian copper producers. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-23 | Copper prices rally as Michael Burry bets on supply-demand imbalance. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-23 | Copper supply constraints and strong demand signal a price rally. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-22 | India and Chile are finalising a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, with copper trade as a central pillar. | costs easing | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hindustan Copper is advancing a joint venture with CODELCO for four copper blocks in Chile. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-20 | India's infrastructure ambitions will drive a sharp rise in copper demand through 2047. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-16 | MCX Copper Futures prices have declined and are fluctuating in a wide range. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-10 | Copper prices surge on global supply constraints and US tariff threats. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-10 | Copper prices fell after reports of White House hesitancy on tariffs. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-10 | Copper prices are surging due to a mismatch between global mining output and smelting capacity. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-08 | Copper prices hit an all-time high due to tariff fears and increased demand from sectors like AI and electric vehicles. | costs rising | PENDING |
Wheat & grain
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 14 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
75 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Pakistan flour crisis: subsidised supply collapse drives 20kg bag prices to ₹3,300 in Peshawar, with roti costs up 50% | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-01 | Soybean futures fell due to record US harvest, fund liquidation, and weak export demand. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-30 | India raises the wheat MSP to ₹2,610/quintal for 2027-28, a ₹25 increase. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-28 | Wheat prices fell as traders monitored diplomatic efforts to restore Black Sea grain exports. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-27 | Russia could restart up to 80% of Black Sea grain export terminals if attacks cease. | costs easing | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Yaan Enterprises Ltd receives a yellow maize purchase order worth, expanding its order book. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-18 | India sets a rabi food production target of 177.72 million tonnes amid deficient monsoon rainfall. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-16 | Yaan Enterprises Ltd receives a purchase order for yellow maize worth, expanding its order book. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-13 | Putin proposes a BRICS insurance mechanism to shield trade from Western sanctions. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-09 | Wheat futures fell as traders booked profits, despite ongoing Black Sea supply risks. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-07 | Wheat futures prices fell as traders reassessed Black Sea shipment risks. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-06 | Indian government curbs sugar prices, pushing sugar prices down and squeezing sugar mill margins. | costs rising | PENDING |
Aluminium
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 12 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
12 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
145 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to rising demand and limited supply growth. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-01 | Odisha High Court rejects Vedanta's plea to reinstate a 2004 bauxite supply agreement. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-26 | Vedanta Group announces a ₹1 lakh crore investment in Odisha across aluminium, mining, and manufacturing. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-19 | EU proposes to ban exports of metal scrap, including aluminium, to India from May 2027. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-15 | EU Parliament removes the emergency brake on its carbon border tax, making the levy harder to suspend. | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Vedanta Group stocks, including Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta Power, fell 3–5% as global commodity prices weakened. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-12 | EU drops proposed aluminium scrap export duty to avoid jeopardizing EU-India free trade talks. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-08 | Aluminium futures rise to ₹351/kg, with technical support at ₹342/kg. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-02 | US-Iran peace deal removes the Strait of Hormuz supply-risk premium from aluminium; LME prices fall. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-01 | BSE penalised National Aluminium Company Limited ₹14,31,340 for SEBI LODR non-compliance. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-08-27 | Hindalco has launched India's first superfine PPT ATH plant in Belagavi. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-08-27 | National Aluminium Company fined ₹14.31 lakh for SEBI LODR non-compliance. | costs rising | PENDING |
Labour
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 12 pending.
Wage costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
4 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
229 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | EPFO raises mandatory EPF wage ceiling from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000, effective 17 September 2026. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | EPF wage ceiling raised from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000/month — mandatory social security now covers millions more salaried employees. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | EPF wage ceiling raised from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000/month effective 17 September — mandatory PF and pension coverage now extends to employees earning up to ₹25,000. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-29 | Private bus operators in Tamil Nadu will strike for 24 hours on September 29, demanding a fare hike and opposing the expansion of the free travel scheme for women. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-27 | EPFO raises PF salary limit from ₹15,000 to ₹25,000, effective September 2026. | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 12 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Bank unions defer a planned three-day nationwide strike after the Indian Banks' Association agrees to discuss demands. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-27 | RBI approved public-sector and rural banks to open on a Sunday to pre-empt a three-day union strike. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-27 | EPF wage ceiling hike raises mandatory employer and employee contributions for higher-salaried staff. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-26 | India raises the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) wage ceiling to ₹25,000/month, expanding mandatory coverage. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-22 | HMRC updates National Minimum Wage guidance, requiring employers to self-review payroll compliance. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-03 | B&Q, Five Guys, and others named for underpaying staff below minimum wage. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-03 | Tesco, B&Q, Whitbread, and 600+ UK firms fined for minimum wage breaches. | costs rising | PENDING |
Steel
Not enough graded calls yet: 1 graded so far, 10 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
13 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
63 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Russian missile strikes have forced indefinite shutdowns at Ukraine's Zaporizhstal steelworks, a key Metinvest asset. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-29 | Tata Steel's Port Talbot electric arc furnace faces grid-connection delays, pushing completion to late 2028. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-28 | Trump announces a $15bn steel plant in Iowa, naming Mesabi Metallics as the project entity. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-28 | $15bn Mesabi Metallics steel plant in Iowa will expand US steel capacity by 2030. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-26 | ArcelorMittal closes Ukraine's largest steel plant, Kryvyi Rih, after severe Russian airstrike damage. | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 11 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | MPs warn that UK steel tariffs and lack of a credible plan threaten British Steel's viability. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-19 | Tata Steel seeks new UK government funding as delays hit its Port Talbot plant transformation. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-17 | UK spending watchdog flags rising costs of keeping nationalised British Steel operational. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-08-30 | HMRC guidance clarifies how Northern Ireland steel importers can avoid EU safeguard tariffs by proving goods are not at risk of entering the EU. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-08-30 | UK halves tariff-free steel import quota, cutting cheap Chinese supply. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-07-13 | Cabinet Office PPN 02/22 mandates transparency reporting for UK-produced steel in government contracts. | costs rising | MISS |
Textiles & cotton
Not enough graded calls yet: 2 graded so far, 8 pending. · median lead 27.7 days
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
1 flag could not be verified against a benchmark and is excluded below.
95 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | VSF Projects grants Hina Textile Mills a letter of approval to set up a unit in its FTWZ. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-22 | US tariffs targeting buyers of Russian oil triggered a sharp selloff in Indian textile stocks, followed by a rebound of up to 10%. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-18 | India's textile sector is pivoting to sustainability to drive growth and global competitiveness. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-17 | BIS invests ₹38.72 crore to modernise 21 cotton-testing labs across key Indian states. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-09 | Fire at Surat's Shyam Sangini textile market damages over a dozen shops. | costs rising | PENDING |
Show all 10 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | R&B Denims Ltd adds a new polyester yarn manufacturing line, with commercial production set for September 30, 2026 | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-03 | Sanathan Textiles doubles technical-textile yarn capacity at Silvassa to 18,000 MTPA, entering commercial production. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-01 | Axita Cotton has filed an EOI to acquire distressed cotton spinner Varidhi Cotspin under the CIRP. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-08-03 | Rising cotton costs and declining production strengthen demand for man-made fibres. | costs rising | HIT |
| 2026-07-11 | Alpine Texworld IPO raises ₹126 crore for capacity expansion, signaling growth in Indian textile manufacturing. | costs rising | MISS |
Food ingredients
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 8 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
1 flag could not be verified against a benchmark and is excluded below.
25 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | CPOPC members (~90% of global palm oil) commit to deeper India ties on edible oil security and sustainable production | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | IVPA directs members to cut edible-oil retail prices after the government's import-duty reduction, effective September 24, 2026. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-10-05 | India's sunflower oil imports fell 36% month-on-month to 103,000 metric tons in September, the lowest in over four years, due to Black Sea port disruptions from the Ukraine war. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-30 | India and Argentina deepen agricultural partnership, focusing on edible oil trade. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-27 | Edible oil import duties are cut, lowering input costs for Indian snack manufacturers. | costs easing | PENDING |
Show all 8 calls
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Ghana raises its cocoa farmgate price for 2026-27, diverging from Ivory Coast. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-25 | Malaysian palm oil futures fell over 2% on rising inventories and weak exports. | costs easing | PENDING |
| 2026-09-15 | India's palm oil imports rose 7% and soyoil imports jumped 26% in August. | costs easing | PENDING |
Coffee beans
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 2 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
1 flag could not be verified against a benchmark and is excluded below.
50 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Coffee Island India targets 70-75 cafés by March 2029, focusing on metropolitan expansion. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-09-29 | Wingsure launches COFFEA, a digital platform for coffee growers to capture and verify farm-level evidence. | costs easing | PENDING |
Packaging
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 2 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
2 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
46 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Diamond Wipes International recalls ~55,250 units of MD Wipe Outz Numbing Tattoo Wipes for lacking child-resistant packaging, violating the Poison Prevention Packaging Act. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-08-23 | Clearwater Paper's 10-Q discloses no risk flags or covenant breaches, leaving US SME packaging input costs unchanged. | costs easing | PENDING |
Software & IT
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 2 pending.
4 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | UK designates Microsoft, Google, AWS, and Oracle as critical third parties under new financial regulation. | costs rising | PENDING |
| 2026-06-08 | PE software buyouts fell to a post-pandemic low as AI substitutes compress legacy SaaS valuations. | costs rising | PENDING |
Milk & dairy
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 1 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
3 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
14 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Westcombe Dairy adopts diverse pastures, lowering milk yield but aiming for premium cheese differentiation. | costs rising | PENDING |
Rent & business rates
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 1 pending.
37 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
| Flagged | Claim | Cost call | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | April 2026 business-rates changes revalue English premises by size and type, shifting fixed property-tax liability. | costs rising | PENDING |
Insurance
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 0 pending.
3 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
No verifiable calls recorded for this input yet.
Polymers & plastics
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 0 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
2 flags could not be verified against a benchmark and are excluded below.
13 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
No verifiable calls recorded for this input yet.
Timber & furniture
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 0 pending.
Commodity and material costs: what the engine tracks · How these calls are graded
7 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
No verifiable calls recorded for this input yet.
Vehicle R&M & parts
Not enough graded calls yet: 0 graded so far, 0 pending.
6 flags gave no clear direction for small-business costs and are not graded.
No verifiable calls recorded for this input yet.
What changed on 11 October 2026
Corrected on 11 October 2026. Until then this record graded the engine's call on the company in each story, counted flags that made no cost call as hits when the cost benchmark stayed flat, and included calls checked against a share price. It now grades only calls with an explicit direction for small-business costs (rising or easing), read from the story's final "reaches you" step, against the input's public cost benchmark over the call's own window. Flags with no clear cost direction are shown as a count and never graded. Previously published: 1,627 hits and 1,392 misses (53.9%). A first re-grade shown on the same day (200 hits, 788 misses, 20.2%) was itself wrong and was withdrawn after an audit: it counted calls checked against benchmarks that cannot move as misses (India's administered pump diesel price was unchanged on every print since June), graded some calls against a different cost than the one they named, and measured some monthly prints that came before the call. Calls against a benchmark that cannot register a move (one that stayed inside its no-change band for 90 days, or an administered price that changes only in occasional steps and did not step during the call) are now counted as unverifiable, a call must name the cost it is checked against, and at least half of the measured period must fall after the call. The figures on this page use the corrected method. Partial: 1 flag is still being re-read, so these totals will change. Totals so far: 172 hits, 127 misses: 57.5% of 299 graded calls. 561 calls are still pending (the period has not ended or the benchmark has not published yet), and 849 could not be verified against a benchmark. No hit rate is shown for an input with fewer than 30 graded calls. How calls are graded.