Track record

Every dated input-cost call Atri has flagged — hits, misses and pending, verified against public benchmark series. Nothing is removed.

Re-graded 24 Oct 2026: every graded and pending call was re-read through one cost-call gate (method v5). A call counts only when its own claim states a realized move in a named cost, it is filed under that cost, and its direction is the one the claim states. The 19 Oct audit found 40 of 158 graded calls off-method (35 made no cost call, 5 were filed under the wrong cost); the gate grades none of them. It is stricter than the audit: 20 of the 118 calls the audit judged correct state their move in words it cannot read for certain, so they are not graded rather than guessed. Before, as shown at 02:58 UTC on 24 Oct: 94 hits, 72 misses, 133 pending. Now: 61 hits, 41 misses (59.8% of 102 graded), 30 pending.

Corrected on 28 October 2026: a decided price change (an Ofgem price cap, a central-bank rate) counts once per cost, and is never graded against a market price it does not set. Every count on this page comes from one cost-call gate (method v5). What changed

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What changed on 28 October 2026

Corrected on 28 October 2026. A decided price change reported by several outlets was counted once per report, and graded against a market price instead of the decision. Ofgem's October price cap rise of 4% was counted four times, and three of those were marked as misses because wholesale energy prices fell over the period, although the cap did rise on 1 October. The rule that one event counts once per cost compared the wording of the reports, not the event, so differently worded reports of the same decision survived it. Now a decided price change (an Ofgem price cap, a central-bank rate) counts once per cost, and is never graded against a market price it does not set. A call on the Reserve Bank of India's repo rate is graded on our recorded repo rate: a hit when the recorded rate moved the way the call said. We hold no recorded series of Ofgem's price cap, so a call on the cap is now marked unverifiable instead of being graded against wholesale prices. Calls on the Bank of England's and the US Federal Reserve's rates are counted once per decision and keep their usual grade. Previously shown on 28 October 2026: 58 hits, 43 misses and 36 pending. Earlier correction, 24 October 2026: the totals at the top of this page were labelled "corrected totals" but still counted calls the 19 October audit had found off-method, so they disagreed with the audit notice beside them. Every count on this page, and the downloadable dataset, now comes from one cost-call gate (method v5), applied when a call is filed and again whenever the record is counted: a call is graded only when its own claim states a realized move in a named cost (a price that rose or fell, a decided price change, or supply cut or restored), it is filed under that cost, and its direction is the one the claim states. A forecast, a proposal, a warning, a price level ("prices remain high") or a story about something else that mentions the cost in passing (central-bank commentary, company earnings, share moves) is not graded. Pending calls are held to the same gate. Previously shown on 24 October 2026: 94 hits, 72 misses and 133 pending. Earlier correction, 16 October 2026: the record graded some stories that make no cost call at all (company earnings, share moves, takeovers, features on a single business, forecasts and opinion), counted one event several times when several outlets reported it, and its headline rate included calls the table hides because the story's own words move the other way. A call now counts only when the story states a move, decision or disruption on the cost it is filed under, in the direction the story states; one event counts once per cost; and the rate counts exactly the calls shown. Previously published on 16 October 2026: 191 hits and 154 misses (55.4%). Earlier correction, 11 October 2026: until then this record graded the engine's call on the company in each story, counted flags that made no cost call as hits when the cost benchmark stayed flat, and included calls checked against a share price. It now grades only calls with an explicit direction for small-business costs (rising or easing), read from the story's final "reaches you" step, against the input's public cost benchmark over the call's own window. Flags with no clear cost direction are shown as a count and never graded. Previously published: 1,627 hits and 1,392 misses (53.9%). A first re-grade shown on the same day (200 hits, 788 misses, 20.2%) was itself wrong and was withdrawn after an audit: it counted calls checked against benchmarks that cannot move as misses (India's administered pump diesel price was unchanged on every print since June), graded some calls against a different cost than the one they named, and measured some monthly prints that came before the call. Calls against a benchmark that cannot register a move (one that stayed inside its no-change band for 90 days, or an administered price that changes only in occasional steps and did not step during the call) are now counted as unverifiable, a call must name the cost it is checked against, and at least half of the measured period must fall after the call. The figures on this page use the corrected method. Partial: 1 flag is still being re-read, so these totals will change. Totals so far: 61 hits, 41 misses: 59.8% of 102 graded calls. 30 calls are still pending (the period has not ended or the benchmark has not published yet), and 182 could not be verified against a benchmark. No hit rate is shown for an input with fewer than 30 graded calls. How calls are graded.